Aston Villa vs. Manchester United: Villa Poised to Cover Handicap in 19/1 Bet Builder

As Aston Villa and Manchester United prepare to face off this weekend, the contrast between the two clubs couldn’t be starker.

Villa comes into this match riding high after one of their most memorable victories in recent times, while United finds themselves uncomfortably close to the relegation zone, far from the Premier League top four.

Before making any betting decisions, let’s dive into the data to see where the smart money should go.

Villa’s Strong Odds
Given the contrasting forms of both teams, Aston Villa is unsurprisingly the favorite to win. With odds around 6/5, they remain a strong option for bettors. Villa has enjoyed an excellent start to the season under Unai Emery, winning seven out of nine matches across all competitions. Their only defeat came against title favorites Arsenal back in August.

Additionally, their 1-0 victory over Bayern Munich places them among just seven teams in the Champions League boasting a perfect record after two games. In the Premier League, however, their last result—a 2-2 draw away to Ipswich—was a slight disappointment, particularly after leading for most of the match.

Despite that minor setback, Villa’s form this season suggests that this was more of an anomaly than a sign of deeper issues.

Meanwhile, Manchester United’s recent form has been troubling. After squandering a two-goal lead against Porto, only a last-gasp Harry Maguire goal salvaged a draw for them. United have now gone four games without a win across all competitions and were humiliated 3-0 at home by Tottenham last weekend. With only two victories from their first six league matches, the pressure is mounting.

United also haven’t won any of their last eight league matches against the Big Six, and while Villa isn’t traditionally in that group, their fourth-place finish last season suggests United might struggle in this fixture.

United’s Wastefulness in Front of Goal
One of the key reasons for United’s poor start has been their failure to convert chances. Despite generating a decent expected goals (xG) tally of 10.55, they’ve only scored five, making them the biggest xG underperformers in the league with a gap of -5.55.

With an xG per shot of 0.13, United ranks fourth in the league for shot quality. However, their conversion rate sits at just 6.33%, the third lowest in the division. Only Southampton, second from bottom, has scored fewer goals than United.

By contrast, Aston Villa has an xG of 0.14 per shot and a much better conversion rate of 17.39%, showing their greater efficiency in front of goal.

A key example of United’s wastefulness is Bruno Fernandes. Despite taking 17 shots so far, only three have been on target, and he is yet to find the back of the net. His 3.4 shots per game (excluding the match against Tottenham, where he was sent off early) highlight his activity, but he has been ineffective. Fernandes is available at 11/10 to take three or more shots at Villa Park and at 2/1 to receive a card, given his recent disciplinary issues.

Although United fans might be nervous about this trip, their ability to create chances should still provide some hope. Villa’s goalkeeper, Emi Martinez, has been uncharacteristically underwhelming this season, with a save percentage of just 59.09%. He’s conceded nine goals from an expected goals on target (xGOT) of 7.3, meaning he has underperformed by 1.7 goals.

Despite a generally solid defense, Villa has conceded more goals (nine) than any other team in the top half, suggesting that United could capitalize on any lapses.

Betting Insights
With Villa and United both showing vulnerabilities at the back, it’s understandable why betting on both teams to score (BTTS) is priced at 40/85, and over 2.5 goals comes in at 8/15. If you’re looking for higher odds, over 3.5 goals at 11/8 could be a good bet, especially considering Villa’s last three league games have all exceeded that number.

Bruno Fernandes, despite his struggles, remains a tempting option to finally get on the scoresheet, with odds of 16/5. The 30-year-old has reached double figures in every season across all competitions for the past eight years, and his set-piece duties offer additional opportunities to score.

Aston Villa’s Attacking Threat
On the other side, United’s defense will face a significant challenge in containing Villa’s attackers. Ollie Watkins has been in red-hot form, scoring four goals in his last three league games. His assist in the 2-2 draw against Ipswich also set a new club record for Premier League matches where he has both scored and assisted in the same game. Watkins is priced at 10/11 to either score or assist again this weekend.

Another key player for Villa is Jhon Duran, who is fresh from scoring a brilliant lob against Bayern Munich. Despite only being used as a substitute in the league, the Colombian forward has netted six times in nine appearances across all competitions this season. Even if Duran doesn’t start, his impact off the bench is undeniable, with a goal every 23 touches in the Premier League. He is 11/8 to score again, and his impressive goals-per-minute ratio at Villa Park makes him an appealing bet.

Conclusion
With United’s defensive frailties and Villa’s attacking form, it’s no surprise that the -1 handicap for Aston Villa is offered at an attractive 16/5. This could be a great value bet as Villa looks to continue their strong start to the season against a struggling Manchester United side.