Outright Winner: A Deep Dive into Long-Term Betting in League of Legends
Mr.Cat > esports > Outright Winner: A Deep Dive into Long-Term Betting in League of Legends
Outright Winner betting is one of the most strategic and high-stakes forms of esports wagering, particularly when it comes to major tournaments like the League of Legends World Championship (Worlds). Unlike match-specific bets, where the focus is on individual games or series, an outright winner bet involves predicting the team that will ultimately triumph and claim the title. This type of bet requires a deep understanding of team dynamics, current form, historical performance, and the unpredictable nature of long, multi-stage tournaments.
An Outright Winner bet, often referred to as a “futures” bet, is a wager placed on the team that will win the entire tournament. In the case of Worlds 2024, bettors would place their stakes on the team they believe will lift the Summoner’s Cup at the end of the event. This bet can be placed at any point during the tournament, though odds typically fluctuate as the event progresses and teams advance or are eliminated.
Outright Winner bets are appealing because they offer high rewards, especially if you place your bet early or back an underdog team. However, they also carry a higher risk since you’re betting on the outcome of an entire tournament, where many variables and unforeseen circumstances can influence the final result.
2. Factors to Consider for Outright Winner Bets
When placing an Outright Winner bet, it’s essential to take a comprehensive approach. The following factors play a significant role in determining which team has the best chances of emerging victorious in a tournament like Worlds 2024:
a. Team Form and Recent Performance
Understanding a team’s current form is perhaps the most critical element when placing an outright bet. A team entering the tournament with a strong track record, momentum from recent victories, and solid performances in their regional leagues or international competitions is generally a safer bet. However, even historically strong teams can falter if they are not in top form when the tournament begins.
Regional Performance: Pay close attention to how a team performed in their regional qualifiers or playoffs. For example, teams from regions like the LCK (Korea) and LPL (China) are often seen as favorites due to their historically strong showings at Worlds, but underdog teams from regions like LEC (Europe) or LCS (North America) can sometimes upset the odds.
Recent Meta Adaptation: Each patch or meta change can significantly impact a team’s chances. Teams that quickly adapt to meta shifts and show versatility across different strategies typically perform better in long tournaments. Meta shifts often favor teams with a deep champion pool and strategic flexibility.
b. Team Composition and Player Synergy
Roster Strength: A team’s raw skill and synergy are crucial in winning a tournament. Some teams might have superstars in specific roles, such as mid lane or AD carry, but it’s the synergy and coordination across all five roles that usually determine success. Teams with balanced rosters and players who work well together tend to perform better over the course of a tournament.
Experience vs. New Talent: Veteran players with extensive experience on the international stage, such as Faker from T1, often perform well under pressure and bring invaluable leadership to their team. On the other hand, up-and-coming players can bring fresh energy and creativity. Finding a balance between seasoned veterans and explosive new talent can be a key factor in a team’s success.
Team Communication: At an event like Worlds, where stakes are high, team communication and how players handle pressure are crucial. Teams with better communication and a strong mental game, even when they’re behind, are more likely to make comebacks and succeed in the long run.
c. Tournament Structure and Format
The structure of Worlds 2024 includes several stages, such as play-ins, group stages, quarterfinals, semifinals, and the finals. Understanding the format and how it impacts teams is vital in making an informed outright winner bet.
Play-In Teams: Some teams start their Worlds journey in the play-ins, a qualification round before the group stage. Play-in teams might face an uphill battle, but this stage also gives them a chance to build momentum. However, teams that already secured direct group-stage entry are often stronger and may have better odds of winning the entire event.
Knockout Stages: Teams must advance through single-elimination knockout stages once the group stage concludes. Upsets can occur frequently in these best-of-five series, where one team’s superior preparation or in-game decision-making can determine the outcome of a single match that knocks the other out of the tournament.
d. Strength of Competition
The overall strength of the competition at Worlds varies every year, and assessing the power level of different regions and individual teams is crucial when making outright winner bets. For instance, some years might see a dominance from Korean or Chinese teams, while other years could feature more parity between regions.
Major Regions vs. Minor Regions: Major regions like Korea (LCK), China (LPL), Europe (LEC), and North America (LCS) have historically dominated the Worlds stage, while teams from minor regions like PCS, VCS, or CBLOL are usually seen as underdogs. However, minor region teams sometimes cause major upsets, so understanding the meta and team dynamics from all regions is key.
Underdogs and Dark Horses: There’s always the possibility of a dark horse team making a deep run. In previous Worlds tournaments, teams like Suning (2020) and DAMWON Gaming (2019) made impressive runs despite not being the initial favorites. Keep an eye on rising teams that show promise early in the tournament.
e. Psychological Factors and Momentum
Pressure and Mental Fortitude: Teams with better mental resilience tend to perform well over long tournaments. Pressure can mount over the course of the event, and the ability to handle high-stakes matches, especially in the knockout stage, separates the champions from the rest. A team’s mental fortitude often becomes apparent in tight, late-stage games.
Tournament Momentum: Teams that build momentum throughout the tournament—starting with strong group-stage performances and carrying that form into the knockout rounds—often have an edge. Conversely, teams that barely scrape through the group stage may struggle to find their footing in the later rounds.
3. Timing Your Bet: Early vs. Late Outright Bets
One of the strategic decisions when placing an outright winner bet is timing. Bettors can place their bets early (before the tournament begins or in its early stages) or later (after seeing how the tournament progresses).
Early Outright Bets:
Higher Potential Returns: Early bets usually offer higher odds because the outcome is more uncertain. If you believe in a dark horse team or a team that has shown potential in their regional league, placing a bet early could lead to a large payout if they win.
Risk: The downside to early betting is that there are more unknown factors, such as how teams will adapt to the meta, potential roster issues, or surprise performances from other teams.
Late Outright Bets:
More Informed Decisions: As the tournament progresses, you can observe teams’ performances, drafting strategies, and adaptability. Placing a bet later allows for a more informed decision based on what you’ve seen in the group stage and early knockout rounds.
Lower Odds: The odds for outright winners will typically drop as stronger teams make their way through the tournament. This can limit the potential return on investment, but it also reduces the risk.
4. Conclusion: Crafting a Winning Outright Winner Strategy
Outright Winner betting in Worlds 2024 requires a holistic understanding of teams, their form, tournament dynamics, and the ever-changing meta. While outright bets can be riskier than match-specific bets, they offer the potential for higher rewards and long-term excitement throughout the event. Successful outright betting relies on combining deep analysis of individual teams with careful observation of the tournament’s evolving landscape. For serious bettors, this means staying updated on each team’s performance, making use of statistical analysis, and closely following roster changes, meta shifts, and strategic trends.
By carefully weighing these factors, you can craft a thoughtful outright winner strategy that maximizes your chances of predicting which team will ultimately lift the Summoner’s Cup.
